Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3337871311292
Vichy Dercos Shampooing Stimulant Énergisant 200ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 38.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
79
≈ 31.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 108
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3337871311292
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 183 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vichy Dercos Shampooing Stimulant Énergisant 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -38.2% · on-hand 79 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1162 days of history, 287 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 26.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 64.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 64.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 182.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.7K |