Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3282779003131
Avène Eau Thermale 300ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▼ 15.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-5.6%
vs same 4w last year (18 units)
Current stock
643
≈ 377.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 103
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3282779003131
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 82 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Eau Thermale 300ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending down -15.0% · on-hand 643 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 100 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 81.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.4K |