Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3282770149548
Avène Solaire Cleanance Solaire SPF50+ 50ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
4,323
Σ Stock across 15 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 168
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AUC3282770149548
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Solaire Cleanance Solaire SPF50+ 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, stable demand · on-hand 4323 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 25 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.49 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.4K |