Demand Forecast

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BOURJOIS Crayon Contour Clubbing Waterproof - 54 Ultra Black
SKU · AUC3052503825403

BOURJOIS Crayon Contour Clubbing Waterproof - 54 Ultra Black

longtail 3P MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

-75.0%
vs same 4w last year (20 units)

Current stock

5
≈ 1.8 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04

AUC3052503825403

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 109 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

BOURJOIS Crayon Contour Clubbing Waterproof - 54 Ultra Black · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 5 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (1148 days of history, 123 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.1 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks8.6 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months27.3 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.5 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)28.7 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)108.7 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.1
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 4.1K