Demand Forecast

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Baume B5+ Ultra-Réparateur SPF50+ - La Roche-Posay - 40ml - Apaise & Soulage les Peaux Irritées
SKU · AUC1726812109986

Baume B5+ Ultra-Réparateur SPF50+ - La Roche-Posay - 40ml - Apaise & Soulage les Peaux Irritées

longtail 3P PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year

Current stock

5,887
≈ 4456.5 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 153
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03

AUC1726812109986

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Baume B5+ Ultra-Réparateur SPF50+ - La Roche-Posay - 40ml - Apaise & Soulage les Peaux Irritées · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 5887 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.2 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks8.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months25.7 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.1 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)24.3 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)70.7 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.0
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 10.8K