Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC1723163005087
Gel-Crème Hydratant Oil Control - CeraVe - Peaux Mixtes - 52ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 82.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 98
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-13
AUC1723163005087
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 307 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel-Crème Hydratant Oil Control - CeraVe - Peaux Mixtes - 52ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -82.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (721 days of history, 174 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 71.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 20.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 22.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 95.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 307.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 30.1K |