Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC1716163531469
Essence Mascara Call Me Queen Dramatic Effet Faux Cils 11.5ml
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-19
AUC1716163531469
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 137 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Mascara Call Me Queen Dramatic Effet Faux Cils 11.5ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +66.7% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (847 days of history, 156 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 43.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 137.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.8K |