Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC1716163531469
Essence Mascara Call Me Queen Dramatic Effet Faux Cils 11.5ml
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+233.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
10
≈ 4.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AUC1716163531469
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 109 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Mascara Call Me Queen Dramatic Effet Faux Cils 11.5ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 188 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 108.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.4K |