Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC1707529223330
Maybelline New York Lifter Plump 006 Hot Chili 5,4ml
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
3
≈ 2.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 75
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-28
AUC1707529223330
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Lifter Plump 006 Hot Chili 5,4ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (791 days of history, 73 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 17.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.0K |