Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC1699583969933
Mascara - MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - Sky High - Teinte Bordeaux - 7,2ml - Non Waterproof
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+11.1%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
3
≈ 1.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 107
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC1699583969933
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 108 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mascara - MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - Sky High - Teinte Bordeaux - 7,2ml - Non Waterproof · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +42.9% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 160 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.92 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 108.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.6K |