Demand Forecast

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Maybelline New York Mascara Falsies Surreal 10 ml
SKU · AUC0000030161467

Maybelline New York Mascara Falsies Surreal 10 ml

longtail 1P MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

4
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

+33.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)

Current stock

9
≈ 4.2 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 101
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06

AUC0000030161467

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Maybelline New York Mascara Falsies Surreal 10 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 9 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 101 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 10 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week1.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks8.1 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months26.7 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.6 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)30.5 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)109.8 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.1
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 11.1K