Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC0000030153219
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 35 Cheeky
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 104
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AUC0000030153219
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 284 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 35 Cheeky · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1148 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 93.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 283.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 29.4K |