Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC0000030153219
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 35 Cheeky
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-77.8%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
9
≈ 1.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 94
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AUC0000030153219
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 206 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 35 Cheeky · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1085 days of history, 135 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 205.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.4K |