Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC0000030152830
Maybelline New York Cils Mascara Sensational Sky High Cosmic Black 7,2ml
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-84.6%
vs same 4w last year (13 units)
Current stock
2
≈ 0.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 101
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC0000030152830
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Cils Mascara Sensational Sky High Cosmic Black 7,2ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 88 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 31.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 114.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.5K |