Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC0000030145559
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 10 Lippy
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-100.0%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 110
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AUC0000030145559
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 103 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Effet Vinyl 10 Lippy · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1113 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 102.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.3K |