Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC0000030144941
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Nude Shock N°110 Awestruck 4,2ml
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
vs same 4w last year (0 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 6.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 86
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-03-31
AUC0000030144941
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 112 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Vinyl Ink Encre à Lèvres Nude Shock N°110 Awestruck 4,2ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1022 days of history, 8 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.52 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 112.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.7K |