Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ACM1685235661611
ACM Azéane Crème Acide Azélaïque 15 % 30g
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 241
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-21
ACM1685235661611
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 211 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ACM Azéane Crème Acide Azélaïque 15 % 30g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (973 days of history, 259 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 76.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 210.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 50.8K |