Demand Forecast
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SKU · AC5E91111071008441
Gel Douche Old Spice Swagger – Scent of Cedarwood Fraîcheur Après-Lavage – 473 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
18
≈ 11.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 63
avg of last 28 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AC5E91111071008441
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 86 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche Old Spice Swagger – Scent of Cedarwood Fraîcheur Après-Lavage – 473 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (196 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 85.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.4K |