Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC48636652310093018
Garnier Super UV Invisible Air-Mist Sunscreen 75ML
hero
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
52
▼ 40.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
58
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
51
≈ 6.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AC48636652310093018
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 404 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Super UV Invisible Air-Mist Sunscreen 75ML · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 52 units, trending down -40.9% · on-hand 52 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (273 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 52 units · prev 4w = 88 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 19.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 73.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 218.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 103.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 404.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 26.8K |