Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC486362142310033832
ULTRA DOUX HUILE AVOCAT 120 ML
longtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
72
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
13
≈ 7.7 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 72
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AC486362142310033832
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ULTRA DOUX HUILE AVOCAT 120 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, stable demand · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (238 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.8K |