Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC486362142310033832
ULTRA DOUX HUILE AVOCAT 120 ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
182
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
88
≈ 63.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AC486362142310033832
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 100 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ULTRA DOUX HUILE AVOCAT 120 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 87 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (350 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 6.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 99.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.6K |