Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC1D17111090145365
Pure Argan Oil - Huile d'Argan 100 % Naturelle 1.7 FL.OZ.LIQ / 50ml e
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 88.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
79
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-20
AC1D17111090145365
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pure Argan Oil - Huile d'Argan 100 % Naturelle 1.7 FL.OZ.LIQ / 50ml e · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -88.2% · on-hand 79 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (273 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.9K |