Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC15601006151122421
AC15601006151122421
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
294
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-11-03 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 365
avg of last 6 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AC15601006151122421
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-26 · Total forecast: 31 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AC15601006151122421 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 294 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (126 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.39 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 9.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 31.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.3K |