Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC03E0912150844672
Montre Homme Élégante à Quartz Forme Carrée Bracelet Noir Style Moderne Minimaliste. GNV-10-TA
longtail
3P
MONTRES
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 84
avg of last 16 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AC03E0912150844672
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 48 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Montre Homme Élégante à Quartz Forme Carrée Bracelet Noir Style Moderne Minimaliste. GNV-10-TA · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +33.3% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (259 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.47 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 48.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.1K |