Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AC03E0911251117630
Montre tactile pour enfant écran digital bracelet silicone rose modèle pratique et durable
longtail
3P
MONTRES
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 150.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
6
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AC03E0911251117630
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Montre tactile pour enfant écran digital bracelet silicone rose modèle pratique et durable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +150.0% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (301 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |