Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ABFFC9903110033651
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles
longtail
3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
26
▲ 73.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
49
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
ABFFC9903110033651
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 26 units, trending up +73.3% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (266 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 26 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 22.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 75.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 164.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |