Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ABF495702161257542
FARD A JOUES SOFT TOUCH BOUNCY ESSENCE 10
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 84.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-14
ABF495702161257542
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
FARD A JOUES SOFT TOUCH BOUNCY ESSENCE 10 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -84.2% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (140 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 67.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |