Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ABE2B40911410094616
Gel Douche Nivea Men Sensitive 250 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▲ 88.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
246
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
8
≈ 3.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
ABE2B40911410094616
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 121 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche Nivea Men Sensitive 250 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending up +88.9% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (259 days of history, 83 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.14 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 22.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |