Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AB0090012200157045
MAANGE™ Blur Matte Lipstick N104 – Rouge à Lèvres Mat Flouté, Teinte Nude Beige, Confort Longue Durée
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 12 sells · latest 2026-10-01
AB0090012200157045
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MAANGE™ Blur Matte Lipstick N104 – Rouge à Lèvres Mat Flouté, Teinte Nude Beige, Confort Longue Durée · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (203 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |