Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5492303050309482
Déodorant spray Captain 150 ml – Old Spice – Parfum frais et marin
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▼ 52.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
123
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAF5492303050309482
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 162 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant spray Captain 150 ml – Old Spice – Parfum frais et marin · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending down -52.4% · on-hand 127 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (133 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 42 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 23.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 76.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 46.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 161.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |