Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF548611120834117
Vaseline - Baume à lèvres - Beurre de cacao 4,8 g
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
238
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
65
≈ 185.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 13 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAF548611120834117
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline - Baume à lèvres - Beurre de cacao 4,8 g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 65 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (252 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.34 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 2.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |