Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5462404230928845
NIVEA SUN TRIGGER SPF50+ 250 ML – Protection Solaire Haute Performance
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
10
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 138
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAF5462404230928845
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA SUN TRIGGER SPF50+ 250 ML – Protection Solaire Haute Performance · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (91 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 30 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 65.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.6K |