Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF545303040909895
Garnier Color Naturals Hair Color - Chocolate Brown 6.34
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
43
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 44
avg of last 7 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAF545303040909895
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 35 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Color Naturals Hair Color - Chocolate Brown 6.34 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (217 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.55 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 35.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |