Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5440812040854380
Ballon plastique Nostalgie 1990 - Couleur Aléatoire
midtail
3P
JEUX DE RECRE - JEUX D'EXTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 150.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
370
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-10-01
AAF5440812040854380
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ballon plastique Nostalgie 1990 - Couleur Aléatoire · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +150.0% · on-hand 392 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (98 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.21 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 22.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 563 |