Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF54401402040346465
Gaufrier Austin – 1600 W – Taurus
longtail
3P
PETIT APPAREIL DE CUISSON
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 47.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
108
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 512
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AAF54401402040346465
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gaufrier Austin – 1600 W – Taurus · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -47.1% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (161 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 36.6K |