Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5436510411085625
Tuyau de Jardin en PVC 15 m – 7 Fonctions
longtail
1P + 3P
ARROSAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▲ 166.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
38
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
26
≈ 22.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 101
avg of last 28 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AAF5436510411085625
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 94 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tuyau de Jardin en PVC 15 m – 7 Fonctions · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending up +166.7% · on-hand 26 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (168 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.5K |