Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5428612020858506
Mug 325 ml – Mosaic Morocco
longtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
645
≈ 201.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAF5428612020858506
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 170 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mug 325 ml – Mosaic Morocco · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 645 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (161 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.34 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 63.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 170.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 945 |