Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF54211903180111660
Lot de 2 Gels Douche Tahiti Coco 250 ml – Soin Nettoyant et Parfumé
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 250.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
76
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
40
≈ 57.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 17 sells · latest 2026-10-05
AAF54211903180111660
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 98 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 2 Gels Douche Tahiti Coco 250 ml – Soin Nettoyant et Parfumé · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +250.0% · on-hand 40 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (175 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 98.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |