Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF54201701230419883
Lot de 5 serviettes en microfibre – Modèle F2611
longtail
1P + 3P
LINGE DE TOILETTE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 900.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
76
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
31
≈ 58.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 14 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AAF54201701230419883
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 102 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 5 serviettes en microfibre – Modèle F2611 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +900.0% · on-hand 32 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (203 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 102.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |