Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5412402260251726
Bocal en verre Passion Aura – 250 ml
longtail
3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▲ 86.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
63
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 6 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAF5412402260251726
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 92 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bocal en verre Passion Aura – 250 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending up +86.7% · on-hand 84 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (182 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.52 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 2.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 92.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 753 |