Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5406006100234990
AAF5406006100234990
longtail
3P
ORGANISATION DU BUREAU
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
82
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 13 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AAF5406006100234990
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAF5406006100234990 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 139 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (63 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 688 |