Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF540111070749014
Jeu Éducatif - Jeu de Labyrinthe Tactile
longtail
1P + 3P
JEUX SCIENTIFIQUES
Last 4 weeks demand
61
▲ 238.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
128
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
15
≈ 5.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAF540111070749014
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 172 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Jeu Éducatif - Jeu de Labyrinthe Tactile · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 61 units, trending up +238.9% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (322 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.74 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 61 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 37.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 55.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 171.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |