Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAF5400512110758503
Assiette plate ronde 19,5 cm Éclats d’Automne
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
36
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
6
≈ 4.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 8 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAF5400512110758503
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette plate ronde 19,5 cm Éclats d’Automne · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (259 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 806 |