Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEFC03007201051686
AAEFC03007201051686
longtail
1P + 3P
ENTRETIEN DES SOLS - ENTRETIEN DE LA MAISON
Last 4 weeks demand
47
▲ 176.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
214
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
98
≈ 13.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 436
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAEFC03007201051686
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 251 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAEFC03007201051686 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 47 units, trending up +176.5% · on-hand 100 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (56 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 47 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 48.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 30.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 32.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 87.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 250.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 109.3K |