Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC55512101210303490
L'Oréal Elseve Glycolic Gloss – Soin Lamination à l’Acide Glycolique – 200ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 41.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
41
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
9
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 74
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAEC55512101210303490
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 125 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elseve Glycolic Gloss – Soin Lamination à l’Acide Glycolique – 200ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -41.7% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 20.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 125.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.2K |