Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC55411701210303593
Elseve Glycolic Gloss Demelant Conditioner 150ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 81.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
66
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
9
≈ 3.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 68
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAEC55411701210303593
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Elseve Glycolic Gloss Demelant Conditioner 150ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -81.2% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.7K |