Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC531006191107253
AAEC531006191107253
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
90
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-10-05
AAEC531006191107253
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 44 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAEC531006191107253 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +22.2% · on-hand 90 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (112 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 44.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 403 |