Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC51514401210152530
Garnier Micellar Cleansing Water 100ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
143
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
32
≈ 29.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-06-30
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 25 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAEC51514401210152530
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Micellar Cleansing Water 100ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 32 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (140 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.36 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |