Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC50717501221107674
O-Plastine Crème de Change 60G
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▲ 142.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
3,354
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 27 sells · latest 2026-07-26
AAEC50717501221107674
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 156 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
O-Plastine Crème de Change 60G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending up +142.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (182 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 65.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 155.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |