Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAEC50313801210152870
Garnier Fast Bright Vitamine C Day Cream 50ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAEC50313801210152870
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Fast Bright Vitamine C Day Cream 50ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (154 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 47.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.9K |