Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A995101010025303
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - PACK SKY HIGH COSMIC + LIFTER GLOSS 007 AMBER = MINI CRAYON
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 110
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2025-12-13
AAE9A995101010025303
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 512 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - PACK SKY HIGH COSMIC + LIFTER GLOSS 007 AMBER = MINI CRAYON · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (42 days of history, 175 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 114.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 20.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 114.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 512.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 56.5K |