Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A9902160325353
Garnier Gel Écran Total Super UV Cooling Vitamine C – 30 ml
hero
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
37
▼ 14.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
310
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
298
≈ 15.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A9902160325353
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 879 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Gel Écran Total Super UV Cooling Vitamine C – 30 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 37 units, trending down -14.0% · on-hand 298 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (224 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 37 units · prev 4w = 43 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 250.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 44.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 30.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 166.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 879.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 14.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 37.1K |