Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A9902160325353
Garnier Gel Écran Total Super UV Cooling Vitamine C – 30 ml
midtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
156
▼ 26.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
21
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
16
≈ 0.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 44
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-03
AAE9A9902160325353
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 722 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Gel Écran Total Super UV Cooling Vitamine C – 30 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 156 units, trending down -26.4% · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (168 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 156 units · prev 4w = 212 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 39.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 134.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 394.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 50.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 201.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 722.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 20.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 31.6K |