Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A8881910094145
Assiette creuse 21cm
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 78.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
121
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
22
≈ 7.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-16
AAE9A8881910094145
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 178 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette creuse 21cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -78.1% · on-hand 22 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (224 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 32 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 23.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 76.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 177.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 920 |